Working Papers

Coup Risk and Designated Successors in Autocracies

Abstract: Why do some autocracies formalize designated successors in the constitution? According to a recent wave of research, autocrats have succession rules when coups are likely. Successors increase certainty over the regime’s future and protect the autocrat from coups. In contrast, I argue that secure autocrats are more likely to have succession rules when they can prevent coups from successors and ambitious elites. I directly test whether coup risk influences having vice presidents and create a novel measurement of coup risk using Random Forests. I find support for my argument: Higher coup risk decreases the probability of an autocracy having a vice president. My results suggest that the relationship between successors and survival needs to be revisited. They also demonstrate the importance of testing institutions’ causes for studying autocratic institutions. To understand the effects of institutions, we need to understand their causes.

Status: Under review. Updated August 31, 2023. Presented at the 2023 Midwest Political Science Association conference.

Labor Mobility and Semi-Presidentialism

Abstract: Political scientists frequently argue that presidential and parliamentary democracies produce different policy outcomes but fail to fully consider semi-presidential democracies. To demonstrate the importance of considering semi-presidentialism, I reanalyze an existing argument that presidential democracies have more labor mobility than parliamentary democracies because presidential democracies empower special interests who support immigration. I replicate previous analyses and find little evidence that the type of democracy affects labor mobility. Political scientists need to consider semi-presidentialism or risk erroneous inferences. Further, theories of institutions and immigration policy, and institutional theories more generally, should focus on more specific institutions rather than rely on the blunt distinctions between types of democracies.

Status: Under review. Updated May 9, 2023.